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Annual influenza epidemics are estimated to affect 5 to 15% of the global population. Although most cases are mild, this still causes severe illness in 3 to 5 million people and around 250,000 to 500,000 deaths worldwide. In industrialized countries severe illness and deaths occur mainly in the high-risk populations of infants, the elderly, and chronically ill patients.

In addition to these annual epidemics, Influenza A virus strains caused three major global epidemics during the 20th century: the Spanish flu in 1918, Asian flu in 1957 and Hong Kong flu in 1968-69. These pandemics were caused by strains of Influenza A virus that had undergone major genetic changes and for which the population did not possess significant immunity. The overall effects of these pandemics and epidemics are summarized in the table below.

 

20th century flu pandemics

Pandemic

Year

Influenza A virus
subtype

People infected
(approx)

Deaths
(est.)

Case fatality rate

1918 flu pandemic

1918-19

H1N1

0.5 to 1 billion (near 50%)

20 to 100 million

>2.5%

Asian flu

1956-58

H2N2

2 million

<0.1%

Hong Kong flu

1968-69

H3N2

1 million

<0.1%

Seasonal flu

Every year

mainly A/H3N2, A/H1N1, and B

5-15% (340 million to 1 billion)

250,000 - 500,000 per year

<0.05%

The influenza virus has also caused several pandemic threats over the past century, including the pseudo-pandemic of 1947, the 1976 swine flu outbreak and the 1977 Russian flu, all caused by the H1N1 subtype. The world has been at an increased level of alert since the SARS epidemic in Southeast Asia (caused by the SARS coronavirus). The level of preparedness was further increased and sustained with the advent of the H5N1 bird flu outbreaks because of H5N1's high fatality rate, although the strains currently prevalent have limited human-to-human transmission (anthroponotic) capability, or epidemicity.

People who have contracted flu prior to 1957 may have some immunity. A May 20, 2009 New York Times article stated: “Tests on blood serum from older people showed that they had antibodies that attacked the new virus”, Dr. Daniel Jernigan, chief flu epidemiologist at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said in a telephone news conference. “That does not mean that everyone over 52 is immune, since some Americans and Mexicans older than that have died of the new flu”

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